The February home resale numbers from the Canadian Real Estate Association were good enough for the organization to up its forecast for the year. CREA has gone from projecting a slight, 1.1% decrease in sales to a slight, 1.0% increase.

But the figures are still a tale of two markets: the red hot big cities of Toronto and Vancouver and the rapidly cooling, oil dependent zones in Alberta, Saskatchewan and Newfoundland & Labrador. On average, sales climbed about 1.0% m/m and jumped nearly 19.0% y/y last month.

It’s nice that CREA is optimistic, but dealing with “averages” in this environment does not offer truly firm guidance.

The Association’s February report does not fully address the new down payment rules that took effect in the middle of the month. It does make the point that there will likely be a limited affect because of the number of million-dollar-plus homes (which fall outside the rules) being sold in Toronto and Vancouver.

The March numbers may offer better insights into where things are going. And it remains to be seen what this week’s federal budget will bring.

Thank you First National for your insight.